解决世界经济发展的政策建议

——商业二十国峰会发言稿

中国.杭州娃哈哈集团有限公司董事长 宗庆后

 2011年11月3日

Suggested Policies on Solving Problems of the Development of World Economy

B20SummitSpeech

Zong Qinghou, Chairman, Hangzhou Wahaha Group Co., Ltd.,China

November 3rd, 2011

从2008年美国次贷危机引发的世界金融危机，至今已经整整三年了，各国政府均经过了多方努力，但仍未能奏效，反而二次探底，问题更严重。究其原因，我认为是没有把这次危机的原因搞清楚，因而方法不对，而导致目前问题越来越严重。现本人对此提出一些不成熟的想法，若有不当之处，敬请各位批评指正。

    It has been 3 years since the U.S subprime crisis triggered the global financial crisis in 2008. Each government has made unremitting effort in combating the crisis, but sadly the measures are not effective enough and the world economy is now on the verge of a double dip. In my opinion, the reason for the setback of overcoming crisis is that we haven’t actually understand the causes of the crisis, thus the measures we have taken are hardly correct and the situation is getting more serious.

  一、经济危机发生的原因

    1. The Causes of Economic Crisis

我认为经济的最基本原则是分工不同，相互交换而已，从原始社会开始，你打猎我种粮，你打猎获得多余的肉换我多余的粮，满足了大家的需求。直到现代社会这个原则实际上并没有变，无非是分工和交换更复杂了一点而已。而当前的经济危机实际上是创造财富与分配财富不平衡所造成的，创造财富的人少，分配财富的人多了，财富不足以分配，不能满足所有人的需要，就发生了经济危机。

    I think the most basic principle of economy lies in the division of labor and exchange of goods. Since the primitive society, a hunter can exchange his extra prey for grain from a grain-planter, meeting the needs of both sides. Until modern society, this principle actually has not changed, only the division and exchange has become more complicated. In fact, the root of current crisis is the imbalance of wealth creation and distribution: there are less and less people creating wealth while more and more people demanding wealth; the wealth created is not enough to meet everyone’s need, thus it resulted in an economic crisis.

    例如欧洲各国一直来实施了高税收高福利的政策，干活的和不干活的生活享受都一样，因此都不愿干活了，都不创造财富了。再说美国，一直在搞虚拟经济，不注重实体经济的发展，而虚拟经济是分配财富而不是创造财富，华尔街的金融炒家们通过各种金融游戏把市场上的钱都炒到他们口袋里去了，亦就是财富被他们掠夺了，所以就产生问题了。

    For example,Europehas long adopted a high tax and high welfare policy. People who work or don’t work enjoy similar life standards, thus some people are unwilling to work anymore and the number of people who create wealth decreases.United Stateshas long engaged in the development of virtual economy while ignoring real economy. Virtual economy cannot create wealth but only distribute wealth. The Wall Street speculators grabbed all the money in the financial market into their own pockets through various financial “games” and no doubt caused problems in the end.

  而中国这些年主要亦是靠出口与投资拉动经济的发展，没有解决好分配问题，没有大幅提高老百姓的收入，内需不足，因此亦受到了世界经济危机的冲击。再加上世界上推行以WTO为代表的全球一体化经济，大家关注的是谁的成本低谁生产。结果发达国家均利用发展中国家的廉价劳动力去生产，导致发达国家不创造财富，发展中国家廉价为发达国家打工。而现在发达国家支付不起了，发展中国家也没有给老百姓增加收入，亦拉动不了内需，造成出口受阻，内需又拉不起，同样产生了问题。

    While inChina, the development in recent years is mainly driven by export and investment. The issue of wealth distribution is not well addressed and people’s income is still lagged behind. The lack in domestic demand indicates thatChinacannot avoid the adverse impact of global economic crisis. Additionally, the globalized world economy represented by the WTO focuses on the low cost of production. The developed countries are all making use of the cheap labor in developing countries to produce goods. As a result, the developed countries do not create wealth, while the developing countries are working for the developed countries. At the present stage, developed countries are not able to afford it anymore and developing countries have not enhanced the income of their people. The consequence is that developing countries now face a low domestic demand and a gloomy export outlook.

当前各国政府面对危机的主要办法是利用财政资金不断填补银行被金融炒家掠夺所造成的窟窿，我认为这是没有从本质上看清问题、解决问题，才造成目前这种状况。

    Meanwhile, government in each country has not realized the nature of the crisis and the way to solve the crisis fundamentally, but was merely continuing exerting itself to patch the financial holes caused by financial speculators through public finance. It is all these factors that lead us to the current serious situation.

   二、解决问题的政策

    2. Policy for Solving the Problem

总体上应该是采取鼓励有钱人扩大投资、提供穷人就业的机会，鼓励穷人通过辛勤劳动致富，改善自己的生活。

    Generally speaking, the policies to be adopted should encourage the rich to expand investment and provide employment opportunities for the poor, and encourage the poor to improve their own life standard through their diligent working.

各国政府均应以解决就业为第一要务，美国经济大萧条时期，罗斯福总统以工代赈的办法解决了就业问题，很快恢复了经济就是一个例证。因此欧美发达国家政府不要被那些金融炒家们所迷惑了，亦不要再吵来吵去、争来争去而不拿出有力的措施去解决问题，让局面越来越恶化。特别是执政党与在野党，要站在国家利益上、全体老百姓的利益上，共同用正确的方法去解决当前的经济危机，而不要再站在自己政党与利益集团的利益上，阻挠用准确的方法去解决经济危机，否则世界会大乱，会给全球老百姓带来灾难。

    The priority of each government should be to restore employment. DuringAmerica’s great depression, the work relief program in President Roosevelt’s New Deal solved the unemployment problem and thus restored the economy in a short period of time. This best exemplifies the importance of employment. Therefore, governments inAmericaand European countries should not be misled by the financial speculators, nor keep arguing over the issues without taking any effective measures to solve the problems, which would only worsen the situation. It is especially important for the ruling party and the opposition party to consider the interests of the whole nation and people and work collectively to solve the current economic crisis. If they continue to only consider the interests of the interest groups and themselves and dally with the crisis, they would only bring chaos and disaster to the world and people.

二是暂停WTO的有关游戏规则，各国自己解决自己的供需平衡、创造与分配的平衡，有多余的出口，有紧缺的进口，而不是强制各国开放市场加剧竞争。发达国家要放开高新技术产品的出口，你不放开出口，不扩大销售，你前期大量投入的科研开发成本，又怎么能收得回来，又如何能支撑你进一步开发更新、更高技术的产品？而发展中国家要扩大分配，提高老百姓的收入，拉动内需，少出点口，多增加点进口，这样整个世界经济就平衡了。同时亦体现了被大家忽视的WTO另外一条最重要的原则，即要保证充分就业，实际收入和有效需求的持续增长。

  Secondly, the relevant WTO rules should be suspended for the moment. We should let each country to restore its balance between supply and demand as well as wealth creation and distribution, allowing countries to export when there are extra goods and import when there is shortage, but not forcing them to open the market and intensify competition. Developed countries should lift its control over the export of high-tech products, otherwise how can you recover your previous investment on research and development, and how can you support your further development on new products? At the same time, developing countries should expand the scope of wealth distribution and enhance the income of your people. This will stimulate domestic demand, which in turn will lessen export and increase import to some extent, contributing to the balance of global economy. This also embodies another often-ignored WTO principle, namely, to guarantee full employment and the constant growth of real income and effective demand.

世界各国尽管肤色不同、语言不同、文化不同，甚至政治体制不同，但我们共同生活在一个地球上，我们需要一个和平共处、各国老百姓都能安居乐业、共同发展、共同追求与创造一个美好生活的环境。因此考虑问题时不要总想牺牲别国利益，而获得自己利益，而应当通过大家受益的解决办法。

    We all live in the same world, despite the fact that we bear different skin colors, use different languages, and immerge in different cultures and even different political systems. We all need a peaceful environment where people from all over the world can live and work in peace and contentment and where our common wish is to pursue and build a better environment for a better life. Therefore, when solving problems, one should not always consider sacrificing other countries’ interests to gain its own interest, but try to achieve a win-win solution.

    因此希望世界各国的政治精英们，特别二十国的领导们能商议出一个解决当前世界经济危机的正确方法与政策，让世界早日走出经济危机的阴影，为世界人民造福。

    In closing, I hope the world's political elite, especially the leaders of G20, could come up with a correct way and policies to overcome the current global economic crisis, leading the world out of the shadow soon and benefiting the people all over the world.

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